Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Burnley to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurnley to win ✗62% · @1.91
Double chanceBurnley or draw ✗86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Burnley vs Bristol City preview and prediction
The match
Bristol City travel to Turf Moor in the Championship on Saturday 5 September (15:00 WAT) to face Burnley. Burnley are 22nd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Bristol City sit 17th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Burnley's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Middlesbrough 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Bristol City's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Preston 3–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Bristol City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.4 for Burnley and 1.1 for Bristol City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burnley 62%, draw 23%, Bristol City 14%.
Safer route: Burnley or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Burnley to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Burnley or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Burnley 2–1 Bristol City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burnley62%fair 1.60 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.40
Bristol City14%fair 6.94 · @3.70
3.50Expected goals
2.37Burnley xG
1.13Bristol City xG
62%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Burnley 2.4 – 1.1 Bristol City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley to win✗
62%
1.60
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Burnley or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Burnley ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley / FT Burnley✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.43
–
Form
Burnley – last 6
DLDLDD
2 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Norwich
1–4
L
26 Aug
@ Bradford
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ West Brom
1–3
L
16 Aug
vs West Ham
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Notts County
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bristol City – last 6
WWDLLD
1 Sep
@ Preston
3–1
W
29 Aug
vs Portsmouth
2–1
W
22 Aug
@ Birmingham
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs Millwall
0–2
L
6 Aug
vs Walsall
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Exeter City
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Bristol City.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our pick is Burnley or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley vs Bristol City?
On our numbers Burnley have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bristol City 14%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Bristol City?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our predicted score is Burnley 2–1 Bristol City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Bristol City?
Burnley vs Bristol City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
