Value bet: Swansea to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultStoke City to win ✗40% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.22
Stoke City vs Swansea preview and prediction
The match
Swansea travel to bet365 Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 15 August (15:00 WAT) to face Stoke City. Stoke City are 3rd with 29 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Swansea sit 6th on 26 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Stoke City's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Oldham 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Swansea's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Birmingham 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Stoke City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Stoke City and 1.2 for Swansea. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Stoke City 40%, draw 24%, Swansea 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Swansea to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Stoke City 1–1 Swansea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Stoke City40%fair 2.52 · @2.32
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.25
Swansea36%fair 2.76 · @3.00
2.47Expected goals
1.27Stoke City xG
1.20Swansea xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Stoke City 1.3 – 1.2 Swansea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stoke City to win✗
40%
2.52
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stoke City / FT Stoke City✗
22%
4.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.22
–
Form
Stoke City – last 6
WDWWDL
8 Aug
vs Oldham
2–0
W
1 Aug
vs Valencia
1–1
D
28 Jul
vs Everton
1–0
W
21 Jul
@ Chester
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Crewe
1–1
D
10 Jul
vs SC Braga
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Swansea – last 6
LWLWLD
8 Aug
vs Birmingham
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Leganes
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Merthyr Town
0–3
L
24 Jul
vs Udinese
2–0
W
21 Jul
vs VfL Bochum
0–2
L
18 Jul
vs Holstein Kiel
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stoke City and Swansea.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Stoke City vs Swansea?
On our numbers Stoke City have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Swansea 36%.
How many goals will there be in Stoke City vs Swansea?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Swansea?
Our predicted score is Stoke City 1–1 Swansea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Stoke City vs Swansea?
Stoke City vs Swansea (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at bet365 Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
