Value bet: Derby to win @ 2.66 – our chance 45% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerby to win ✗45% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.59
Charlton vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
Derby travel to The Valley in the Championship on Saturday 15 August (15:00 WAT) to face Charlton. Charlton are 19th with 17 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Charlton's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Cheltenham 3–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Derby's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Lincoln 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Charlton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Charlton and 1.3 for Derby. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Charlton 33%, draw 22%, Derby 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Derby to win at 2.66 – 45% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Charlton 1–1 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Charlton33%fair 3.07 · @2.66
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Derby45%fair 2.22 · @2.66
2.43Expected goals
1.08Charlton xG
1.34Derby xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Charlton 1.1 – 1.3 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby to win✗
45%
2.22
2.66 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby / FT Derby✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.59
–
Form
Charlton – last 6
WLWLWD
8 Aug
@ Cheltenham
3–1
W
1 Aug
@ Reading
0–3
L
28 Jul
@ Colchester
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ AFC Wimbledon
0–2
L
18 Jul
@ Gillingham
1–0
W
10 Jul
@ Maribor
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
LDLWLL
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Burton Albion
0–1
L
31 Jul
@ Mansfield Town
3–1
W
28 Jul
vs Valencia
1–2
L
24 Jul
@ SC Freiburg
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Charlton and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Charlton vs Derby?
On our numbers Charlton have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 45%.
How many goals will there be in Charlton vs Derby?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Charlton vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Charlton 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Charlton vs Derby?
Charlton vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Valley.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
