Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.10 – our chance 56% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +73%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓56% · @3.10
Double chanceAlashkert or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13% · fair 7.73
Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey preview and prediction
The match
Alashkert host Yelimay Semey in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 9 July, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Alashkert Stadium.
Form guide
Alashkert's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Shirak 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Yelimay Semey's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Kyzyl-Zhar 1–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Alashkert and 1.1 for Yelimay Semey. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Draw at 3.10 – 56% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alashkert or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alashkert 1–1 Yelimay Semey. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alashkert27%fair 3.71 · @2.10
Draw56%fair 1.79 · @3.10
Yelimay Semey17%fair 5.79 · @3.30
2.42Expected goals
1.31Alashkert xG
1.11Yelimay Semey xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Alashkert 1.3 – 1.1 Yelimay Semey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
56%
1.79
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Alashkert or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alashkert / FT Alashkert✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✓
13%
7.73
–
Form
Alashkert – last 6
WWDWWD
26 May
vs Shirak
2–0
W
9 May
vs Gandzasar
3–1
W
2 May
@ BKMA
2–2
D
19 Apr
@ FC Urartu
3–1
W
14 Apr
vs Ararat
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Ararat-Armenia
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Yelimay Semey – last 6
WWLLWW
4 Jul
@ Kyzyl-Zhar
1–0
W
27 Jun
vs Kyzyl-Zhar
2–0
W
21 Jun
vs Atyrau
1–2
L
14 Jun
vs Ordabasy
1–3
L
28 May
@ Kaisar
3–2
W
23 May
vs Zhenys
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alashkert and Yelimay Semey.
What is the prediction for Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey?
Our pick is Alashkert or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey?
On our numbers Alashkert have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Yelimay Semey 17%.
How many goals will there be in Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey?
Our predicted score is Alashkert 1–1 Yelimay Semey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey?
Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 9 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Alashkert Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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