Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 54% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultZambia to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceZambia or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.20
Zambia vs Togo preview and prediction
The match
Togo travel to Levy Mwanawasa Stadium in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification on Tuesday 29 September (17:00 WAT) to face Zambia. Zambia are 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while Togo sit 3rd on 5 points.
Form guide
Togo's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Burundi 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Zambia and 0.8 for Togo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zambia 57%, draw 27%, Togo 16%.
Safer route: Zambia or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 54% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Zambia or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Zambia 1–0 Togo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zambia57%fair 1.77 · @1.95
Draw27%fair 3.66 · @2.90
Togo16%fair 6.24 · @4.00
2.50Expected goals
1.69Zambia xG
0.81Togo xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Zambia 1.7 – 0.8 Togo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zambia to win✓
57%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Zambia or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zambia / FT Zambia✓
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.20
–
Form
Zambia – last 2
LL
25 Sep
@ Algeria
1–3
L
1 Apr
@ Argentina
0–5
L
0.5Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Togo – last 5
WWDWD
25 Sep
vs Burundi
1–0
W
9 Jun
vs Benin
5–1
W
5 Jun
@ Central African Republic
1–1
D
31 Mar
@ Niger
1–0
W
27 Mar
@ Guinea
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zambia and Togo.
Our pick is Zambia or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Zambia vs Togo?
On our numbers Zambia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Togo 16%.
How many goals will there be in Zambia vs Togo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zambia vs Togo?
Our predicted score is Zambia 1–0 Togo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Zambia vs Togo?
Zambia vs Togo (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Burundi2
Comoros1
Namibia0
Ethiopia0
Senegal1
Lesotho0
Morocco2
Mozambique4
Sudan1
South Sudan0
Egypt5
Madagascar1
Tanzania1
Cape Verde Islands1
Rwanda2