Burundi vs Algeria prediction & analysis
Algeria to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 55% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Burundi 0.9 – 2.3 Algeria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Algeria travel as clear favourites – 67% to win, against 12% for Burundi.
Burundi have taken 6 points from their last 3 matches (2W 0D 1L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.3 per game. Algeria have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.3 goals (0.9 for Burundi, 2.3 for Algeria). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 0–2 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Algeria to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.29 is close to our fair price of 1.50. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.30 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Algeria to win ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| Double chance | Algeria or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 2.30 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Half-time result | Algeria ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Algeria / FT Algeria ✗ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 10% | 9.64 | – |
Form
Burundi – last 3
| 25 Sep | @ Togo | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Chad | 4–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Chad | 4–0 | W |
Algeria – last 6
| 25 Sep | vs Zambia | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Jul | @ Switzerland | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Jun | vs Austria | 3–3 | D |
| 23 Jun | @ Jordan | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Jun | @ Argentina | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Jun | @ Bolivia | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burundi and Algeria.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Algeria | 6 | +14 | 16 |
| 2 |  Equatorial Guinea | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Togo | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 |  Liberia | 6 | -8 | 4 |
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Gambia4Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burundi vs Algeria?
Our pick is Algeria to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Burundi vs Algeria?
On our numbers Burundi have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Algeria 67%.
How many goals will there be in Burundi vs Algeria?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Burundi vs Algeria?
Burundi vs Algeria (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Intwari.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.