Ethiopia vs Senegal prediction & analysis
Senegal to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ethiopia 0.3 – 1.4 Senegal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Senegal travel as clear favourites – 67% to win, against 10% for Ethiopia.
Ethiopia have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches (3W 1D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.4 per game. Senegal have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Ethiopia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.8 goals (0.3 for Ethiopia, 1.4 for Senegal). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (25%), 0–2 (18%), 0–0 (17%).
Our pick is Senegal to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.49.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Senegal to win ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.36 |
| Double chance | Senegal or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Senegal / FT Senegal ✓ | 39% | 2.54 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 25% | 4.05 | – |
Form
Ethiopia – last 5
| 25 Sep | @ Sudan | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Jun | vs Malawi | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Jun | vs Malawi | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Sao Tome and Principe | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Sao Tome and Principe | 3–0 | W |
Senegal – last 6
| 25 Sep | @ Mozambique | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Jul | @ Belgium | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Jun | vs Iraq | 5–0 | W |
| 23 Jun | @ Norway | 2–3 | L |
| 16 Jun | @ France | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Jun | @ Saudi Arabia | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ethiopia and Senegal.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Congo DR | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Tanzania | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Guinea | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ethiopia | 6 | -9 | 4 |
More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions
League hub
Burundi2
Algeria2
Comoros1
Namibia0
Lesotho0
Morocco2
Mozambique4
Sudan1
South Sudan0
Egypt5
Madagascar1
Cape Verde Islands1
Rwanda2
Ghana2
Gambia4Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Senegal?
Our pick is Senegal to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Senegal?
On our numbers Ethiopia have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Senegal 67%.
How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Senegal?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Ethiopia vs Senegal?
Ethiopia vs Senegal (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Bahir Dar Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.