Lesotho vs Morocco prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lesotho 0.4 – 1.6 Morocco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Morocco travel as clear favourites – 73% to win, against 14% for Lesotho.
Lesotho have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches (1W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 per game. Morocco have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Morocco come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (0.4 for Lesotho, 1.6 for Morocco). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–1 (22%), 0–2 (18%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.29 is close to our fair price of 1.66.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Morocco to win ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.03 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.29 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Morocco / FT Morocco ✓ | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 22% | 4.58 | – |
Form
Lesotho – last 5
| 25 Sep | @ Niger | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Jun | @ Kenya | 0–4 | L |
| 4 Jun | vs Kenya | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Mar | vs Seychelles | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Seychelles | 0–0 | D |
Morocco – last 6
| 25 Sep | vs Gabon | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Jul | @ France | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Jul | @ Canada | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Jun | @ Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Jun | vs Haiti | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Jun | @ Scotland | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lesotho and Morocco.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 6 | +24 | 18 |
| 2 |  Gabon | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 4 |  Central African Republic | 6 | -11 | 3 |
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Gambia4Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lesotho vs Morocco?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Lesotho vs Morocco?
On our numbers Lesotho have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Morocco 73%.
How many goals will there be in Lesotho vs Morocco?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
When is Lesotho vs Morocco?
Lesotho vs Morocco (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.