Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 54% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUganda to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceUganda or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.29
Uganda vs Libya preview and prediction
The match
Uganda host Libya in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification on Tuesday 29 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Hoima City Stadium. Uganda are 2nd with 13 points from 6 games, while Libya sit 4th on 5 points.
Form guide
Libya's last 3: DDD Most recently they drew with Botswana 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Uganda and 0.9 for Libya. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Uganda 61%, draw 26%, Libya 13%.
Safer route: Uganda or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.20.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 54% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Uganda or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Uganda 2–0 Libya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Uganda61%fair 1.63 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @2.90
Libya13%fair 7.79 · @4.00
3.00Expected goals
2.08Uganda xG
0.92Libya xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Uganda 2.1 – 0.9 Libya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Uganda to win✓
61%
1.63
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Uganda or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Uganda ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Uganda / FT Uganda✓
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.29
–
Form
Uganda – last 1
D
24 Sep
@ Tunisia
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Libya – last 3
DDD
24 Sep
vs Botswana
2–2
D
31 Mar
@ Liberia
2–2
D
27 Mar
vs Niger
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Uganda and Libya.
Our pick is Uganda or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Uganda vs Libya?
On our numbers Uganda have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Libya 13%.
How many goals will there be in Uganda vs Libya?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Uganda vs Libya?
Our predicted score is Uganda 2–0 Libya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Uganda vs Libya?
Uganda vs Libya (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Hoima City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Burundi2
Algeria2
Comoros1
Namibia0
Ethiopia0
Senegal1
Lesotho0
Morocco2
Mozambique4
Sudan1
South Sudan0
Egypt5
Madagascar1
Tanzania1
Cape Verde Islands1