Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 60% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +35%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMali to win ✓69% · @1.44
Double chanceMali or draw ✓89% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @2.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Liberia vs Mali preview and prediction
The match
The Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification sees Liberia take on Mali on Tuesday 29 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex. Liberia are 4th with 4 points from 6 games, while Mali sit 1st on 14 points.
Form guide
Liberia's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Rwanda 1–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.2 for Liberia and 2.8 for Mali. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liberia 11%, draw 20%, Mali 69%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 60% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mali to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Liberia 1–2 Mali. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liberia11%fair 8.78 · @6.50
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @3.60
Mali69%fair 1.46 · @1.44
4.00Expected goals
1.19Liberia xG
2.81Mali xG
60%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
0–37%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: Liberia 1.2 – 2.8 Mali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mali to win✓
69%
1.46
1.44
Double chance
Mali or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Mali ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mali / FT Mali✗
49%
2.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.62
–
Form
Liberia – last 5
LWLDL
25 Sep
@ Rwanda
1–3
L
9 Jun
vs Sierra Leone
3–1
W
6 Jun
@ Sierra Leone
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Libya
2–2
D
27 Mar
@ Benin
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Mali – last 2
WD
25 Sep
vs Cape Verde Islands
3–1
W
31 Mar
@ Russia
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liberia and Mali.
Our pick is Mali to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Liberia vs Mali?
On our numbers Liberia have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Mali 69%.
How many goals will there be in Liberia vs Mali?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liberia vs Mali?
Our predicted score is Liberia 1–2 Mali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Liberia vs Mali?
Liberia vs Mali (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Burundi2
Comoros1
Namibia0
Ethiopia0
Senegal1
Lesotho0
Morocco2
Mozambique4
Sudan1
South Sudan0
Egypt5
Madagascar1
Tanzania1
Cape Verde Islands1
Rwanda2