Luxembourg host Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 6 October, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade de Luxembourg. Luxembourg are 4th with 3 points from 4 games, while Bulgaria sit 3rd on 4 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Luxembourg's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Estonia 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Bulgaria's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to Iceland 0–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Luxembourg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 September 2026, finished Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Luxembourg and 0.9 for Bulgaria. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 2.05, above our fair price of 1.85, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Luxembourg 1–1 Bulgaria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Luxembourg47%fair 2.11 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Bulgaria30%fair 3.29 · @3.50
2.17Expected goals
1.25Luxembourg xG
0.92Bulgaria xG
54%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Luxembourg 1.3 – 0.9 Bulgaria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
On our numbers Luxembourg have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bulgaria 30%.
How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Our predicted score is Luxembourg 1–1 Bulgaria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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