Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultIceland to win ✗61% · @1.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.78
Estonia vs Iceland preview and prediction
The match
Estonia host Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 6 October, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at A. Le Coq Arena. Estonia are 2nd with 6 points from 4 games, while Iceland sit 1st on 8 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estonia's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Luxembourg 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Iceland's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Bulgaria 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 September 2026, finished Iceland 1–1 Estonia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.5 for Estonia and 1.3 for Iceland. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estonia 20%, draw 19%, Iceland 61%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Iceland to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Estonia 0–1 Iceland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estonia20%fair 5.02 · @5.00
Draw19%fair 5.24 · @3.75
Iceland61%fair 1.64 · @1.57
1.83Expected goals
0.52Estonia xG
1.31Iceland xG
45%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–016%
0–214%
1–111%
1–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Estonia 0.5 – 1.3 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Iceland to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Estonia vs Iceland?
On our numbers Estonia have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Iceland 61%.
How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Iceland?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Iceland?
Our predicted score is Estonia 0–1 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Estonia vs Iceland?
Estonia vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at A. Le Coq Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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