Belarus vs Finland prediction & analysis

Belarus vs Finland preview and prediction

The match

The UEFA Nations League sees Belarus take on Finland on Tuesday 6 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion. Belarus are 2nd with 7 points from 4 games, while Finland sit 3rd on 7 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.

Form guide

Belarus's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat San Marino 4–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.

Finland's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Albania 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Head to head

The last meeting, on 29 September 2026, finished Finland 0–0 Belarus.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for Belarus and 1.8 for Finland. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

• Win chances: Belarus 18%, draw 25%, Finland 57%.
• Safer route: Finland or draw (82%) at 1.25.
• Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.95.
• Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Finland or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Belarus 0–1 Finland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.