Croatia vs Spain prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Croatia 1.6 – 3.2 Spain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Spain travel as clear favourites – 67% to win, against 15% for Croatia.
Croatia have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.5 per game. Spain have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Spain come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.8 goals (1.6 for Croatia, 3.2 for Spain). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 86% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–3 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–3 (6%).
In their last 1 meeting, Croatia have won 0, Spain have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Spain to win ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.22 |
| Double chance | Spain or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 95% | 1.05 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Half-time result | Spain ahead at half-time ✗ | 53% | 1.87 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Spain / FT Spain ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–3 ✗ | 7% | 14.05 | – |
Form
Croatia – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs England | 0–7 | L |
| 29 Sep | @ Spain | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Czechia | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Jul | @ Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Jun | vs Ghana | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Jun | @ Panama | 1–0 | W |
Spain – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Czechia | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Croatia | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ England | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Jul | vs Argentina | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Jul | @ France | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Jul | vs Belgium | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 29 Sep 2026 | Spain v Croatia | 4–1 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | 4 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |  England | 4 | +11 | 9 |
| 3 |  Croatia | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 |  Czechia | 4 | -8 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Kazakhstan2
Faroe Islands2
Albania2
San Marino1
Belarus1
Finland0
Moldova0
Slovakia4
Estonia0
Iceland0
Luxembourg0
Bulgaria2
Switzerland3
FYR Macedonia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Croatia vs Spain?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Croatia vs Spain?
On our numbers Croatia have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Spain 67%.
How many goals will there be in Croatia vs Spain?
We expect about 4.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 86% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is Croatia vs Spain?
Croatia vs Spain (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Poljud.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.