Luxembourg travel to A. Le Coq Arena in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 3 October (17:00 WAT) to face Estonia. Estonia are 2nd with 6 points from 4 games, while Luxembourg sit 4th on 3 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estonia's last 4: DDWL Most recently they drew with Bulgaria 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luxembourg's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Iceland 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luxembourg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Estonia and 1.0 for Luxembourg. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estonia 36%, draw 26%, Luxembourg 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.95. Predicted score: Estonia 1–1 Luxembourg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estonia36%fair 2.79 · @2.88
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.90
Luxembourg39%fair 2.60 · @2.45
2.00Expected goals
0.97Estonia xG
1.03Luxembourg xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Estonia 1.0 – 1.0 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luxembourg to win✗
39%
2.60
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.20
–
Form
Estonia – last 4
DDWL
29 Sep
@ Bulgaria
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ Iceland
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Faroe Islands
1–0
W
30 Mar
@ Rwanda
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Luxembourg – last 6
LWWLWW
29 Sep
vs Iceland
0–3
L
26 Sep
@ Bulgaria
2–1
W
6 Jun
@ Albania
1–0
W
3 Jun
vs Italy
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Malta
3–0
W
26 Mar
@ Malta
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estonia and Luxembourg.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Estonia vs Luxembourg?
On our numbers Estonia have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Luxembourg 39%.
How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Our predicted score is Estonia 1–1 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Estonia vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at A. Le Coq Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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