Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFinland to win ✓40% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.54
Finland vs Albania preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Finland take on Albania on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. Finland are 3rd with 7 points from 4 games, while Albania sit 1st on 9 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Finland's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Belarus 0–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Albania's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat San Marino 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Finland and 1.5 for Albania. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finland 40%, draw 25%, Albania 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.70, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Finland 1–1 Albania. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finland40%fair 2.51 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Albania36%fair 2.81 · @2.90
3.00Expected goals
1.55Finland xG
1.45Albania xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Finland 1.5 – 1.5 Albania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Finland to win✓
40%
2.51
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Finland / FT Finland✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.54
–
Form
Finland – last 5
DWLLW
29 Sep
vs Belarus
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ San Marino
7–0
W
5 Jun
@ Hungary
1–2
L
31 May
@ Germany
0–4
L
27 Mar
@ New Zealand
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Albania – last 6
WWLLLL
29 Sep
@ San Marino
3–0
W
26 Sep
vs Belarus
2–0
W
6 Jun
vs Luxembourg
0–1
L
3 Jun
vs Israel
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Ukraine
0–1
L
26 Mar
@ Poland
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Finland and Albania.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Finland vs Albania?
On our numbers Finland have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Albania 36%.
How many goals will there be in Finland vs Albania?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finland vs Albania?
Our predicted score is Finland 1–1 Albania, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Finland vs Albania?
Finland vs Albania (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Helsinki Olympic Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Croatia0
England7
Iceland3
Bulgaria0
Estonia1
Luxembourg0
Spain3
Czechia1
Switzerland2
Slovenia1
FYR Macedonia0
Scotland2