Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: England to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEngland to win ✓59% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.60
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.97
Croatia vs England preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Croatia take on England on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Stadion Rujevica. Croatia are 3rd with 3 points from 4 games, while England sit 2nd on 9 points.
Form guide
Croatia's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Spain 1–4 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
England's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Czechia 2–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 June 2026, finished England 4–2 Croatia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 1.4 for Croatia and 2.4 for England. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 72% and both teams to score at 65%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Croatia 21%, draw 20%, England 59%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.60.
Value angle: England to win at 1.80 – 59% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Croatia 1–2 England. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Croatia21%fair 4.75 · @3.75
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.70
England59%fair 1.69 · @1.80
3.75Expected goals
1.38Croatia xG
2.37England xG
65%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
0–27%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Croatia 1.4 – 2.4 England expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Croatia vs England?
On our numbers Croatia have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and England 59%.
How many goals will there be in Croatia vs England?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Croatia vs England?
Our predicted score is Croatia 1–2 England, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Croatia vs England?
Croatia vs England (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Rujevica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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