Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction & analysis
Iceland to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Iceland 1.5 – 0.5 Bulgaria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Iceland are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 17% for Bulgaria.
Iceland have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 per game. Bulgaria have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.5 for Iceland, 0.5 for Bulgaria). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (20%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Iceland to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.53.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Iceland to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.40 |
| Double chance | Iceland or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Iceland / FT Iceland ✓ | 37% | 2.69 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 20% | 4.97 | – |
Form
Iceland – last 6
| 29 Sep | @ Luxembourg | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Estonia | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Jun | @ Argentina | 0–3 | L |
| 31 May | @ Japan | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | @ Haiti | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Feb | @ Mexico | 0–4 | L |
Bulgaria – last 6
| 29 Sep | vs Estonia | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Luxembourg | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Jun | @ Moldova | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Jun | vs Montenegro | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Mar | @ Indonesia | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Solomon Islands | 10–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Iceland and Bulgaria.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Iceland | 4 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 |  Estonia | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Bulgaria | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 |  Luxembourg | 4 | -5 | 3 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Scotland2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Our pick is Iceland to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Iceland vs Bulgaria?
On our numbers Iceland have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Bulgaria 17%.
How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Iceland vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Ice Rink Laugardalur.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.