Switzerland vs Slovenia prediction & analysis
Switzerland to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.41 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Switzerland 1.7 – 0.3 Slovenia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Switzerland are clear favourites at home with a 71% chance of winning, against 8% for Slovenia.
Switzerland have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.3 per game. Slovenia have 8 points from their last 5 (2W 2D 1L), averaging 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. Switzerland come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.7 for Switzerland, 0.3 for Slovenia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (22%), 2–0 (19%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Switzerland to win at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.41.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Switzerland to win ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.30 |
| Double chance | Switzerland or draw ✓ | 92% | 1.08 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Switzerland ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Switzerland / FT Switzerland ✓ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 22% | 4.46 | – |
Form
Switzerland – last 6
| 29 Sep | @ Scotland | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ FYR Macedonia | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Jul | @ Argentina | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jul | vs Colombia | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Jul | vs Algeria | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Jun | vs Canada | 2–1 | W |
Slovenia – last 5
| 29 Sep | vs FYR Macedonia | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Scotland | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Jun | @ Croatia | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Jun | vs Cyprus | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Montenegro | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Switzerland and Slovenia.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Slovenia | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 |  FYR Macedonia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Finland2
Albania1
Croatia0
England7
Belarus4
San Marino0
Iceland3
Bulgaria0
Estonia1
Luxembourg0
Spain3
Czechia1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Switzerland vs Slovenia?
Our pick is Switzerland to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Switzerland vs Slovenia?
On our numbers Switzerland have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Slovenia 8%.
How many goals will there be in Switzerland vs Slovenia?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Switzerland vs Slovenia?
Switzerland vs Slovenia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Swissporarena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.