Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.36
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗15% · fair 6.63
Belarus vs San Marino preview and prediction
The match
San Marino travel to Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 3 October (17:00 WAT) to face Belarus. Belarus are 2nd with 7 points from 4 games, while San Marino sit 4th on 0 points.
Form guide
Belarus's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Finland 0–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
San Marino's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Albania 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Belarus arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.5 for Belarus and 0.5 for San Marino. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 47% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Belarus 80%, draw 14%, San Marino 6%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.36.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Belarus 2–0 San Marino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Belarus80%fair 1.25 · @1.07
Draw14%fair 7.09 · @10.00
San Marino6%fair 16.17 · @29.00
3.00Expected goals
2.46Belarus xG
0.54San Marino xG
47%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–015%
3–012%
1–012%
2–18%
4–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Belarus 2.5 – 0.5 San Marino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Belarus to win✓
80%
1.25
1.07
Double chance
Belarus or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.02
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Belarus ahead at half-time✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Belarus / FT Belarus✗
55%
1.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
15%
6.63
–
Form
Belarus – last 6
DLDWWW
29 Sep
@ Finland
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ Albania
0–2
L
9 Jun
vs Burkina Faso
2–2
D
5 Jun
vs Syria
4–1
W
29 Mar
@ Armenia
2–1
W
26 Mar
@ Cyprus
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Marino – last 5
LLLLD
29 Sep
vs Albania
0–3
L
26 Sep
vs Finland
0–7
L
9 Jun
@ Azerbaijan
1–2
L
5 Jun
vs Bangladesh
1–2
L
31 Mar
vs Andorra
0–0
D
0.4Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Belarus and San Marino.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Belarus vs San Marino?
On our numbers Belarus have a 80% chance of winning, the draw 14% and San Marino 6%.
How many goals will there be in Belarus vs San Marino?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Belarus vs San Marino?
Our predicted score is Belarus 2–0 San Marino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Belarus vs San Marino?
Belarus vs San Marino (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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