Value bet: Gibraltar to win @ 3.40 – our chance 45% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +54%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGibraltar to win ✗45% · @3.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Gibraltar vs Andorra preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Gibraltar take on Andorra on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Europa Sports Park. Gibraltar are 2nd with 2 points from 2 games, while Andorra sit 3rd on 1 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Gibraltar's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Sao Tome and Principe 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Andorra's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Malta 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Gibraltar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.7 for Gibraltar and 1.3 for Andorra. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Gibraltar to win at 3.40 – 45% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 2.40, above our fair price of 1.74, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gibraltar 1–1 Andorra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gibraltar45%fair 2.20 · @3.40
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.62
Andorra29%fair 3.43 · @2.30
3.00Expected goals
1.69Gibraltar xG
1.31Andorra xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Gibraltar 1.7 – 1.3 Andorra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gibraltar to win✗
45%
2.20
3.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
2.40 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gibraltar / FT Gibraltar✗
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Form
Gibraltar – last 5
DWWLL
23 Sep
vs Sao Tome and Principe
0–0
D
6 Jun
vs Cayman Islands
4–1
W
3 Jun
vs British Virgin Islands
4–0
W
31 Mar
@ Latvia
0–1
L
26 Mar
vs Latvia
0–1
L
1.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Andorra – last 6
LLWLDL
24 Sep
vs Malta
1–2
L
7 Jun
@ Kosovo
0–3
L
4 Jun
vs Liechtenstein
2–0
W
29 May
@ Iraq
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ San Marino
0–0
D
27 Mar
@ Montenegro
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gibraltar and Andorra.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.40.
Who will win Gibraltar vs Andorra?
On our numbers Gibraltar have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Andorra 29%.
How many goals will there be in Gibraltar vs Andorra?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gibraltar vs Andorra?
Our predicted score is Gibraltar 1–1 Andorra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Gibraltar vs Andorra?
Gibraltar vs Andorra (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Europa Sports Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lithuania1
Azerbaijan1
Serbia1
Netherlands2
Denmark2
Wales0
Austria3
Kosovo1
Germany0
Greece1
Norway1
Portugal2
Israel0
Rep. Of Ireland3