Value bet: Azerbaijan to win @ 3.10 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLithuania to win ✗40% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.04
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan preview and prediction
The match
Lithuania host Azerbaijan in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas. Lithuania are 2nd with 4 points from 3 games, while Azerbaijan sit 1st on 5 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lithuania's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Liechtenstein 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Azerbaijan's last 4: WWLW Most recently they beat Tajikistan 1–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Lithuania and 1.0 for Azerbaijan. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Azerbaijan to win at 3.10 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.93, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lithuania40%fair 2.53 · @2.38
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.80
Azerbaijan34%fair 2.91 · @3.10
2.00Expected goals
1.05Lithuania xG
0.95Azerbaijan xG
52%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Lithuania 1.0 – 1.0 Azerbaijan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lithuania to win✗
40%
2.53
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.04
–
Form
Lithuania – last 3
WLW
24 Sep
@ Liechtenstein
2–0
W
29 Mar
vs Georgia
0–2
L
26 Mar
@ Moldova
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Azerbaijan – last 4
WWLW
23 Sep
vs Tajikistan
1–0
W
9 Jun
vs San Marino
2–1
W
5 Jun
vs Malta
0–2
L
27 Mar
vs St. Lucia
6–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lithuania and Azerbaijan.
What is the prediction for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
On our numbers Lithuania have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Azerbaijan 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Our predicted score is Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serbia1
Netherlands2
Denmark2
Wales0
Austria3
Kosovo1
Gibraltar0
Andorra0
Germany0
Greece1
Norway1
Portugal2
Israel0
Rep. Of Ireland3