Serbia vs Netherlands prediction & analysis
Netherlands to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Serbia 0.7 – 1.8 Netherlands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Netherlands travel as clear favourites – 65% to win, against 15% for Serbia.
Serbia have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches (1W 0D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.8 per game. Netherlands have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Netherlands come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (0.7 for Serbia, 1.8 for Netherlands). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 49%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 0–1 (15%), 0–2 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Netherlands to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.54.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Netherlands to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.36 |
| Double chance | Netherlands or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Netherlands ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands ✓ | 40% | 2.50 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 15% | 6.77 | – |
Form
Serbia – last 5
| 24 Sep | vs Greece | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Jun | @ Mexico | 1–5 | L |
| 31 May | @ Cape Verde Islands | 0–3 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Saudi Arabia | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Spain | 0–3 | L |
Netherlands – last 6
| 24 Sep | vs Germany | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Jun | vs Morocco | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Jun | @ Tunisia | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Jun | vs Sweden | 5–1 | W |
| 14 Jun | vs Japan | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Jun | vs Uzbekistan | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Serbia and Netherlands.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Lithuania1
Azerbaijan1
Denmark2
Wales0
Austria3
Kosovo1
Gibraltar0
Andorra0
Norway1
Portugal2
Israel0
Rep. Of Ireland3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Serbia vs Netherlands?
Our pick is Netherlands to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Serbia vs Netherlands?
On our numbers Serbia have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Netherlands 65%.
How many goals will there be in Serbia vs Netherlands?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Serbia vs Netherlands?
Serbia vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Rajko Mitić Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.