Value bet: Ural to win @ 3.36 – our chance 40% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +36%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultUral to win40% · @3.36
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.03
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.31
Chernomorets vs Ural preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Chernomorets take on Ural on Saturday 16 May, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Centralnyy.
Form guide
Chernomorets's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Chayka 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Ural's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat KAMAZ 2–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ural arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Chernomorets and 1.2 for Ural. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Ural to win at 3.36 – 40% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Chernomorets 1–1 Ural. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chernomorets34%fair 2.98 · @2.29
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.90
Ural40%fair 2.47 · @3.36
2.33Expected goals
1.09Chernomorets xG
1.23Ural xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Chernomorets 1.1 – 1.2 Ural expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ural to win
40%
2.47
3.36 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.81
2.03 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.65
1.51
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ural / FT Ural
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.31
–
Form
Chernomorets – last 6
WLDLWL
8 May
@ Chayka
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
0–4
L
3 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Rotor Volgograd
1–4
L
7 Mar
vs Ska-khabarovsk
3–0
W
1 Mar
vs Torpedo Moskva
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ural – last 6
WLWWWD
11 May
vs KAMAZ
2–0
W
4 May
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Torpedo Moskva
2–0
W
18 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–0
W
12 Apr
vs FC UFA
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chernomorets and Ural.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Chernomorets vs Ural?
On our numbers Chernomorets have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ural 40%.
How many goals will there be in Chernomorets vs Ural?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chernomorets vs Ural?
Our predicted score is Chernomorets 1–1 Ural, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Chernomorets vs Ural?
Chernomorets vs Ural (First League) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Centralnyy.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Rodina Moskva2
FK Sokol Saratov0
Chayka0
Fakel0