Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 16 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultShinnik Yaroslavl to win38% · @3.08

Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 13.18

Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl preview and prediction

The match

Shinnik Yaroslavl travel to Central Stadium in the First League on Saturday 16 May (11:00 WAT) to face Chelyabinsk. Chelyabinsk are 11th with 21 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 7th on 26 points (in the top half).

Form guide

Chelyabinsk's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Rodina Moskva 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.

Shinnik Yaroslavl's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Torpedo Moskva 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Shinnik Yaroslavl arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Chelyabinsk and 1.1 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

Win chances: Chelyabinsk 36%, draw 25%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win at 3.08 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Chelyabinsk 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Chelyabinsk36%fair 2.75 · @2.34

Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.05

Shinnik Yaroslavl38%fair 2.61 · @3.08

2.23Expected goals

1.10Chelyabinsk xG

1.14Shinnik Yaroslavl xG

51%Both score

41%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%

0–112%

1–012%

0–011%

1–28%

2–17%

From our goals model: Chelyabinsk 1.1 – 1.1 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Shinnik Yaroslavl to win	38%	2.61	3.08 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win	75%	1.34	1.33
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	51%	1.97	1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.51	1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	59%	1.69	1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	78%	1.27	1.20
Half-time result	Level at half-time	47%	2.13	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Shinnik Yaroslavl / FT Shinnik Yaroslavl	21%	4.85	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	8%	13.18	–

Form

Chelyabinsk – last 6

LWLDLD

8 May	@ Rodina Moskva	0–2	L
2 May	vs FK Neftekhimik	2–0	W
26 Apr	vs Ural	1–2	L
22 Apr	@ Arsenal Tula	0–0	D
17 Apr	@ Enisey	0–3	L
3 Apr	vs Chernomorets	1–1	D

0.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6

DWDWDD

11 May	vs Torpedo Moskva	1–1	D
4 May	@ Ural	1–0	W
22 Apr	@ Fakel	2–2	D
12 Apr	@ Volga Ulyanovsk	1–0	W
22 Mar	@ Spartak Kostroma	1–1	D
15 Mar	vs Enisey	1–1	D

1.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

67%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	17	15	1	1	+37	46
2	Ural	17	10	4	3	+18	34
3	Torpedo Moskva	17	9	5	3	+16	32
4	FC Sochi	17	10	2	5	+6	32
5	Veles	18	9	4	5	+2	31
6	Spartak Kostroma	17	8	4	5	+2	28
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	17	6	8	3	+4	26
8	FC UFA	17	5	7	5	+2	22
9	Volga Ulyanovsk	18	6	4	8	-3	22
10	Rotor Volgograd	17	5	6	6	+5	21
11	Chelyabinsk	17	6	3	8	-4	21
12	Arsenal Tula	17	5	4	8	-15	19
13	Leningradets	17	4	6	7	-11	18
14	Enisey	17	4	5	8	-14	17
15	Ska-khabarovsk	17	4	4	9	-5	16
16	KAMAZ	17	3	5	9	-9	14
17	FK Neftekhimik	17	4	1	12	-14	13
18	Tekstilshchik	17	2	5	10	-17	11

Team

Pts

+37

+18

+16

-3

-4

-15

-11

-14

-5

-9

-14

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

On our numbers Chelyabinsk have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 38%.

How many goals will there be in Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

Our predicted score is Chelyabinsk 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Central Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

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