Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 16 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultRodina Moskva to win49% · @2.07

Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.29

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.94

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.15

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.26

Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva preview and prediction

The match

Rodina Moskva travel to Stadion Arsenal in the First League on Saturday 16 May (11:00 WAT) to face Arsenal Tula.

Form guide

Arsenal Tula's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Enisey 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Rodina Moskva's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Chelyabinsk 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.

Rodina Moskva arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for Arsenal Tula and 1.4 for Rodina Moskva. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Win chances: Arsenal Tula 30%, draw 22%, Rodina Moskva 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.94.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.94 – 55% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Arsenal Tula 1–1 Rodina Moskva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Arsenal Tula30%fair 3.38 · @3.40

Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.32

Rodina Moskva49%fair 2.06 · @2.07

2.40Expected goals

1.00Arsenal Tula xG

1.40Rodina Moskva xG

55%Both score

42%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%

0–113%

1–09%

0–09%

1–29%

0–29%

From our goals model: Arsenal Tula 1.0 – 1.4 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Rodina Moskva to win	49%	2.06	2.07
Double chance	Either team to win	78%	1.28	1.29
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	55%	1.82	1.94 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.47	1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	58%	1.74	1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	78%	1.28	1.15
Half-time result	Level at half-time	45%	2.23	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Rodina Moskva / FT Rodina Moskva	27%	3.70	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	9%	11.26	–

Form

Arsenal Tula – last 6

LDDLWW

11 May	@ Enisey	0–1	L
4 May	vs Rotor Volgograd	2–2	D
22 Apr	vs Chelyabinsk	0–0	D
5 Apr	vs Fakel	1–2	L
29 Mar	vs FK Sokol Saratov	3–1	W
22 Mar	@ Ska-khabarovsk	3–1	W

1.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Rodina Moskva – last 6

WLWWWW

8 May	vs Chelyabinsk	2–0	W
22 Apr	@ Rotor Volgograd	0–2	L
13 Apr	@ Fakel	3–1	W
5 Apr	@ FK Sokol Saratov	3–1	W
29 Mar	vs Ural	3–1	W
23 Mar	vs Chayka	5–2	W

2.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	17	15	1	1	+37	46
2	Ural	17	10	4	3	+18	34
3	Torpedo Moskva	17	9	5	3	+16	32
4	FC Sochi	17	10	2	5	+6	32
5	Veles	18	9	4	5	+2	31
6	Spartak Kostroma	17	8	4	5	+2	28
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	17	6	8	3	+4	26
8	FC UFA	17	5	7	5	+2	22
9	Volga Ulyanovsk	18	6	4	8	-3	22
10	Rotor Volgograd	17	5	6	6	+5	21
11	Chelyabinsk	17	6	3	8	-4	21
12	Arsenal Tula	17	5	4	8	-15	19
13	Leningradets	17	4	6	7	-11	18
14	Enisey	17	4	5	8	-14	17
15	Ska-khabarovsk	17	4	4	9	-5	16
16	KAMAZ	17	3	5	9	-9	14
17	FK Neftekhimik	17	4	1	12	-14	13
18	Tekstilshchik	17	2	5	10	-17	11

Team

Pts

+37

+18

+16

-3

-4

-15

-11

-14

-5

-9

-14

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?

On our numbers Arsenal Tula have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rodina Moskva 49%.

How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?

Our predicted score is Arsenal Tula 1–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?

Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva (First League) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Arsenal.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

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