Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTreze to win ✗61% · @1.67
Double chanceTreze or draw ✗82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Treze vs Lagarto preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D sees Treze take on Lagarto on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Lagarto's last 4: DDDL Most recently they drew with Retrô 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Treze and 1.1 for Lagarto. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Treze 61%, draw 21%, Lagarto 18%.
Safer route: Treze or draw (82%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Treze to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Treze 2–1 Lagarto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Treze61%fair 1.63 · @1.67
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.25
Lagarto18%fair 5.59 · @4.60
3.27Expected goals
2.17Treze xG
1.10Lagarto xG
57%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Treze 2.2 – 1.1 Lagarto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Treze to win✗
61%
1.63
1.67
Double chance
Treze or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Treze ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Treze / FT Treze✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Form
Treze – last 2
LL
22 Feb
vs Nacional de Patos
1–2
L
19 Feb
@ Botafogo PB
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lagarto – last 4
DDDL
24 May
@ Retrô
1–1
D
17 May
vs Sergipe
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Decisão
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs América SE
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Treze and Lagarto.
Our pick is Treze to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Treze vs Lagarto?
On our numbers Treze have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lagarto 18%.
How many goals will there be in Treze vs Lagarto?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Treze vs Lagarto?
Our predicted score is Treze 2–1 Lagarto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Treze vs Lagarto?
Treze vs Lagarto (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil
Água Santa4
Madureira1
Aparecidense1
Primavera MG1
Iguatu2
Parnahyba2
Joinville2
Guarany de Bagé0
ABECAT Ouvidorense2
Ipatinga1
Porto BA1
Tombense3
Pouso Alegre1
Portuguesa2
Vitória ES1
Real Noroeste1