Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTombense to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.66
Porto BA vs Tombense preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D sees Porto BA take on Tombense on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Porto BA's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Democrata GV 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Tombense's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Juventude 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.8 for Porto BA and 1.5 for Tombense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Porto BA 22%, draw 22%, Tombense 56%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Porto BA 0–1 Tombense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Porto BA22%fair 4.50 · @3.70
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.10
Tombense56%fair 1.80 · @1.91
2.30Expected goals
0.80Porto BA xG
1.49Tombense xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–112%
0–211%
0–010%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Porto BA 0.8 – 1.5 Tombense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tombense to win✓
56%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tombense / FT Tombense✗
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.66
–
Form
Porto BA – last 5
LLLWD
26 May
@ Democrata GV
1–3
L
4 Mar
@ CRB
0–6
L
22 Feb
vs Juazeirense
1–3
L
18 Feb
vs Serra Branca
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Tombense – last 6
LDLDWL
7 May
@ Juventude
1–2
L
30 Apr
vs São Bernardo
2–2
D
16 Apr
@ Volta Redonda
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs America Mineiro
3–3
D
26 Mar
vs Avai
3–2
W
12 Mar
@ Confiança
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Porto BA and Tombense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Porto BA vs Tombense?
On our numbers Porto BA have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tombense 56%.
How many goals will there be in Porto BA vs Tombense?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Porto BA vs Tombense?
Our predicted score is Porto BA 0–1 Tombense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Porto BA vs Tombense?
Porto BA vs Tombense (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil
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Madureira1
Aparecidense1
Primavera MG1
Iguatu2
Parnahyba2
Joinville2
Guarany de Bagé0
ABECAT Ouvidorense2
Ipatinga1
Pouso Alegre1
Portuguesa2
Vitória ES1
Real Noroeste1
ASA0
CSE0