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Serie D · Brazil · Arena Joinville

Joinville

LLLWL
2–0
FT

Guarany de Bagé

LLLLL

Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé prediction & analysis

66%
Footrivo pick

Joinville to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.44Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultJoinville to win ✓66% · @1.44
Double chanceJoinville or draw ✓89% · @1.07
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.26

Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé preview and prediction

The match

Guarany de Bagé travel to Arena Joinville in the Serie D on Saturday 30 May (20:00 WAT) to face Joinville.

Form guide

Joinville's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to São Bernardo 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.

Guarany de Bagé's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Cascavel 0–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.

Joinville arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Joinville and 0.4 for Guarany de Bagé. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Joinville to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Joinville 1–0 Guarany de Bagé. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Joinville66%fair 1.53 · @1.44
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.25
Guarany de Bagé11%fair 9.06 · @8.00
1.81Expected goals
1.43Joinville xG
0.38Guarany de Bagé xG
45%Both score
27%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–023%
2–017%
0–016%
1–19%
3–08%
2–16%

From our goals model: Joinville 1.4 – 0.4 Guarany de Bagé expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultJoinville to win ✓66%1.531.44
Double chanceJoinville or draw ✓89%1.121.07
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓55%1.811.44
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓54%1.85–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73%1.37–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓50%2.00–
Half-time / full-timeHT Joinville / FT Joinville ✗39%2.58–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23%4.26–

Form

Joinville – last 6

LLLWLW
10 Marvs São Bernardo0–1L
7 Mar@ Marcílio Dias0–2L
28 Febvs Figueirense0–3L
24 Febvs CSA1–0W
19 Feb@ Carlos Renaux1–2L
14 Febvs Carlos Renaux3–0W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Guarany de Bagé – last 6

LLLLLW
24 Mayvs Cascavel0–4L
21 Mayvs Bagé0–1L
13 May@ Brasil DE Pelotas0–2L
5 Apr@ Cianorte1–3L
11 Mar@ Ponte Preta0–1L
26 Feb@ Caxias1–0W
0.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Joinville and Guarany de Bagé.

Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Água Santa4 Madureira1 161%1.62X23%3.10215%5.50 1Água Santa to win 61%@1.62 ✓
FT Aparecidense1 Primavera MG1 160%1.85X26%3.00214%3.80 1XAparecidense or draw 86%@1.22 ✓
FT Iguatu2 Parnahyba2 159%1.67X20%3.10221%4.80 1Iguatu to win 59%@1.67 ✗
FT ABECAT Ouvidorense2 Ipatinga1 133%2.90X27%2.60240%2.45 NGNot both teams to score 53%@1.65 ✗
FT Porto BA1 Tombense3 122%3.70X22%3.10256%1.91 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✗
FT Pouso Alegre1 Portuguesa2 113%4.60X25%2.90263%1.75 2Portuguesa to win 63%@1.75 ✓
FT Vitória ES1 Real Noroeste1 163%1.50X25%3.50212%6.00 1Vitória ES to win 63%@1.50 ✗
FT ASA0 CSE0 168%1.30X19%4.00213%11.00 1ASA to win 68%@1.30 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

Our pick is Joinville to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

On our numbers Joinville have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guarany de Bagé 11%.

How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

Our predicted score is Joinville 1–0 Guarany de Bagé, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.

When is Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.