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Today's tips
Serie D · Brazil

Água Santa

LLLDW
4–1
FT

Madureira

DLLWL

Água Santa vs Madureira prediction & analysis

61%
Footrivo pick

Água Santa to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓

5/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultÁgua Santa to win ✓61% · @1.62
Double chanceÁgua Santa or draw ✓85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.69

Água Santa vs Madureira preview and prediction

The match

Madureira travel to face Água Santa in the Serie D on Saturday 30 May (20:00 WAT).

Form guide

Água Santa's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to XV de Piracicaba 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.

Madureira's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Portuguesa RJ 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Água Santa and 0.7 for Madureira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Água Santa to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Água Santa 1–0 Madureira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Água Santa61%fair 1.63 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.10
Madureira15%fair 6.47 · @5.50
2.44Expected goals
1.72Água Santa xG
0.72Madureira xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%

From our goals model: Água Santa 1.7 – 0.7 Madureira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultÁgua Santa to win ✓61%1.631.62
Double chanceÁgua Santa or draw ✓85%1.181.12
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓50%1.992.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.43–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗56%1.79–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77%1.30–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Água Santa / FT Água Santa ✓38%2.63–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15%6.69–

Form

Água Santa – last 6

LLLDWW
15 Aprvs XV de Piracicaba0–1L
8 Apr@ Votuporanguense1–5L
25 Mar@ Ituano0–3L
18 Marvs Votuporanguense0–0D
1 Mar@ Monte Azul1–0W
25 Febvs Grêmio Prudente4–3W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Madureira – last 6

DLLWLW
18 Apr@ Portuguesa RJ0–0D
12 Marvs Águia de Marabá0–1L
3 Marvs Flamengo0–8L
25 Febvs ABC1–0W
23 Feb@ Flamengo0–3L
18 Feb@ Baré3–0W
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Água Santa and Madureira.

Água Santa vs Madureira head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Aparecidense1 Primavera MG1 160%1.85X26%3.00214%3.80 1XAparecidense or draw 86%@1.22 ✓
FT Iguatu2 Parnahyba2 159%1.67X20%3.10221%4.80 1Iguatu to win 59%@1.67 ✗
FT Joinville2 Guarany de Bagé0 166%1.44X23%3.25211%8.00 1Joinville to win 66%@1.44 ✓
FT ABECAT Ouvidorense2 Ipatinga1 133%2.90X27%2.60240%2.45 NGNot both teams to score 53%@1.65 ✗
FT Porto BA1 Tombense3 122%3.70X22%3.10256%1.91 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✗
FT Pouso Alegre1 Portuguesa2 113%4.60X25%2.90263%1.75 2Portuguesa to win 63%@1.75 ✓
FT Vitória ES1 Real Noroeste1 163%1.50X25%3.50212%6.00 1Vitória ES to win 63%@1.50 ✗
FT ASA0 CSE0 168%1.30X19%4.00213%11.00 1ASA to win 68%@1.30 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Água Santa vs Madureira?

Our pick is Água Santa to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Água Santa vs Madureira?

On our numbers Água Santa have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Madureira 15%.

How many goals will there be in Água Santa vs Madureira?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Água Santa vs Madureira?

Our predicted score is Água Santa 1–0 Madureira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Água Santa vs Madureira?

Água Santa vs Madureira (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.