Value bet: Boca Unidos to win @ 1.73 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoca Unidos to win ✓66% · @1.73
Double chanceBoca Unidos or draw ✓88% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.98
Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia preview and prediction
The match
Sarmiento Resistencia travel to Estadio Leoncio Benitez in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 5 July (19:30 WAT) to face Boca Unidos. Boca Unidos are 29th with 18 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Sarmiento Resistencia sit 35th on 15 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Boca Unidos's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Tucuman Central 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sarmiento Resistencia's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Tucuman Central 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Boca Unidos and 0.6 for Sarmiento Resistencia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Boca Unidos 66%, draw 22%, Sarmiento Resistencia 12%.
Safer route: Boca Unidos or draw (88%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Boca Unidos to win at 1.73 – 66% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Boca Unidos 1–0 Sarmiento Resistencia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Boca Unidos66%fair 1.51 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.20
Sarmiento Resistencia12%fair 8.66 · @4.33
2.36Expected goals
1.78Boca Unidos xG
0.59Sarmiento Resistencia xG
48%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–09%
3–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Boca Unidos 1.8 – 0.6 Sarmiento Resistencia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Unidos to win✓
66%
1.51
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Boca Unidos or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Boca Unidos ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Unidos / FT Boca Unidos✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.98
–
Form
Boca Unidos – last 6
LWLWLD
21 Jun
@ Tucuman Central
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs San Martin Formosa
3–1
W
6 Jun
@ Defensores de Vilelas
0–2
L
31 May
vs Bartolomé Mitre
2–1
W
25 May
@ Sarmiento de La Banda
0–3
L
17 May
@ Juventud Antoniana
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sarmiento Resistencia – last 6
WLWLLL
28 Jun
vs Tucuman Central
1–0
W
21 Jun
@ San Martin Formosa
0–3
L
14 Jun
vs Defensores de Vilelas
2–0
W
6 Jun
@ Bartolomé Mitre
0–2
L
31 May
vs Sarmiento de La Banda
0–1
L
23 May
@ Juventud Antoniana
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boca Unidos and Sarmiento Resistencia.
What is the prediction for Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
On our numbers Boca Unidos have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sarmiento Resistencia 12%.
How many goals will there be in Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
Our predicted score is Boca Unidos 1–0 Sarmiento Resistencia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leoncio Benitez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
