Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlvarado to win ✓75% · @1.22
Double chanceAlvarado or draw ✓94% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · @1.36
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗26% · fair 3.90
Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Alvarado take on Germinal de Rawson on Sunday 5 July, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT). Alvarado are 5th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Germinal de Rawson sit 30th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Alvarado's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Villa Mitre 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Germinal de Rawson's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Santamarina 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.6 for Alvarado and 0.2 for Germinal de Rawson. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alvarado 75%, draw 19%, Germinal de Rawson 6%.
Both teams to score: no (63%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 – 64% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alvarado 1–0 Germinal de Rawson. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alvarado75%fair 1.34 · @1.22
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @4.50
Germinal de Rawson6%fair 16.65 · @15.00
1.84Expected goals
1.62Alvarado xG
0.22Germinal de Rawson xG
37%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–026%
2–021%
0–016%
3–011%
1–16%
2–15%
From our goals model: Alvarado 1.6 – 0.2 Germinal de Rawson expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alvarado to win✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Double chance
Alvarado or draw✓
94%
1.06
1.01
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.67 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
1.25
Half-time result
Alvarado ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alvarado / FT Alvarado✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
26%
3.90
–
Form
Alvarado – last 6
LWDWDW
28 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–1
L
20 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
2–2
D
7 Jun
vs Sol de Mayo
2–0
W
31 May
@ Guillermo Brown
0–0
D
24 May
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Germinal de Rawson – last 6
WDDLWD
28 Jun
vs Santamarina
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
0–0
D
30 May
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–1
L
24 May
vs Sol de Mayo
1–0
W
17 May
vs Guillermo Brown
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alvarado and Germinal de Rawson.
What is the prediction for Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
On our numbers Alvarado have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Germinal de Rawson 6%.
How many goals will there be in Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
Our predicted score is Alvarado 1–0 Germinal de Rawson, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
