Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortugal to win ✓67% · @1.57
Double chancePortugal or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.53
Portugal vs Norway preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Portugal take on Norway on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Estádio do Dragão. Portugal are 1st with 12 points from 4 games, while Norway sit 4th on 3 points.
Form guide
Portugal's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Denmark 4–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Norway's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Wales 1–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 September 2026, finished Norway 1–2 Portugal.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.5 for Portugal and 1.0 for Norway. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portugal 67%, draw 21%, Norway 12%.
Safer route: Portugal or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Portugal or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Portugal 2–1 Norway. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portugal67%fair 1.50 · @1.57
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @4.20
Norway12%fair 8.21 · @4.40
3.50Expected goals
2.46Portugal xG
1.04Norway xG
63%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
3–18%
1–18%
3–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Portugal 2.5 – 1.0 Norway expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Portugal or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Portugal vs Norway?
On our numbers Portugal have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Norway 12%.
How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Norway?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Norway?
Our predicted score is Portugal 2–1 Norway, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Portugal vs Norway?
Portugal vs Norway (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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