Value bet: Lithuania to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAzerbaijan to win ✓38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.92
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania preview and prediction
The match
Azerbaijan host Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Bakcell Arena. Azerbaijan are 1st with 5 points from 3 games, while Lithuania sit 2nd on 4 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Azerbaijan's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Liechtenstein 0–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Lithuania's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Andorra 3–0 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 September 2026, finished Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.8 for Azerbaijan and 0.7 for Lithuania. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Lithuania to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Azerbaijan 0–0 Lithuania. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Azerbaijan38%fair 2.66 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.90
Lithuania37%fair 2.72 · @3.10
1.50Expected goals
0.76Azerbaijan xG
0.74Lithuania xG
46%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–017%
0–117%
1–113%
2–06%
0–26%
From our goals model: Azerbaijan 0.8 – 0.7 Lithuania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
On our numbers Azerbaijan have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lithuania 37%.
How many goals will there be in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Our predicted score is Azerbaijan 0–0 Lithuania, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Bakcell Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kosovo1
Austria1
Malta1
Andorra0
Greece0
Germany0
Netherlands2
Serbia1
Portugal2
Norway1
Wales0
Denmark1
Rep. Of Ireland1
Israel1