Wales vs Denmark prediction & analysis
Denmark or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Denmark to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Wales 1.0 – 2.1 Denmark expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Denmark shade it despite being away from home – 60% to win, against 15% for Wales.
Wales have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Denmark have 7 points from their last 5 (2W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.0 for Wales, 2.1 for Denmark). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (10%), 1–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Wales have won 0, Denmark have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Denmark or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Denmark to win at 1.91 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Denmark to win ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Denmark or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 62% | 1.63 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 82% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Half-time result | Denmark ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Denmark / FT Denmark ✗ | 40% | 2.48 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.09 | – |
Form
Wales – last 6
| 1 Oct | vs Norway | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Denmark | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Sep | @ Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Jun | @ Romania | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Jun | vs Ghana | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | vs Northern Ireland | 1–1 | D |
Denmark – last 5
| 1 Oct | vs Portugal | 2–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Wales | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | @ Norway | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Jun | @ Congo DR | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Mar | vs FYR Macedonia | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Sep 2026 | Denmark v Wales | 2–0 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | -2 | 3 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Israel1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Wales vs Denmark?
Our pick is Denmark or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Wales vs Denmark?
On our numbers Wales have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Denmark 60%.
How many goals will there be in Wales vs Denmark?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Wales vs Denmark?
Wales vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Cardiff City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.