Netherlands vs Serbia prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.93 · bookmaker 2.00 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Netherlands 2.3 – 0.6 Serbia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Netherlands are clear favourites at home with a 77% chance of winning, against 9% for Serbia.
Netherlands have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Serbia have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.5 conceded. Netherlands come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.3 for Netherlands, 0.6 for Serbia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (15%), 1–0 (13%), 3–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Netherlands have won 1, Serbia have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 52% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.00 is better than our fair price of 1.93, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Netherlands to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| Double chance | Netherlands or draw ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Half-time result | Netherlands ahead at half-time ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.65 | – |
Form
Netherlands – last 6
| 1 Oct | @ Greece | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Sep | vs Germany | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Jun | vs Morocco | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Jun | @ Tunisia | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Jun | vs Sweden | 5–1 | W |
Serbia – last 6
| 1 Oct | @ Germany | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Sep | vs Greece | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Jun | @ Mexico | 1–5 | L |
| 31 May | @ Cape Verde Islands | 0–3 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Saudi Arabia | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Sep 2026 | Serbia v Netherlands | 1–2 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
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Israel1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Serbia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Netherlands vs Serbia?
On our numbers Netherlands have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Serbia 9%.
How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Serbia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Netherlands vs Serbia?
Netherlands vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Philips Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.