Greece vs Germany prediction & analysis
Germany or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Germany to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Greece 0.6 – 1.6 Germany expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Germany travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 15% for Greece.
Greece have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Germany have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (0.6 for Greece, 1.6 for Germany). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (18%), 0–2 (14%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Greece have won 1, Germany have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Germany or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Germany to win at 1.75 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Germany to win ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Germany or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Germany / FT Germany ✗ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 18% | 5.61 | – |
Form
Greece – last 6
| 1 Oct | vs Netherlands | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Germany | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | @ Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Jun | vs Italy | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Jun | @ Sweden | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Hungary | 0–0 | D |
Germany – last 6
| 1 Oct | vs Serbia | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Greece | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Sep | @ Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Jun | vs Paraguay | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jun | @ Ecuador | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Jun | vs Ivory Coast | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Sep 2026 | Germany v Greece | 0–1 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
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Israel1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Greece vs Germany?
Our pick is Germany or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Greece vs Germany?
On our numbers Greece have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Germany 62%.
How many goals will there be in Greece vs Germany?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Greece vs Germany?
Greece vs Germany (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Toumba Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.