Value bet: JEF United Chiba to win @ 2.65 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultJEF United Chiba to win ✗41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.25
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock preview and prediction
The match
Mito Hollyhock travel to Fukuda Denshi Arena in the J1 League on Saturday 11 April (05:00 WAT) to face JEF United Chiba. JEF United Chiba are 10th with 12 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Mito Hollyhock sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
JEF United Chiba's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Tokyo Verdy 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Mito Hollyhock's last 4: LWLD Most recently they lost to Kashiwa Reysol 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for JEF United Chiba and 1.3 for Mito Hollyhock. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: JEF United Chiba to win at 2.65 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: JEF United Chiba 1–1 Mito Hollyhock. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
JEF United Chiba41%fair 2.41 · @2.65
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.10
Mito Hollyhock34%fair 2.94 · @2.65
2.68Expected goals
1.42JEF United Chiba xG
1.26Mito Hollyhock xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: JEF United Chiba 1.4 – 1.3 Mito Hollyhock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
JEF United Chiba to win✗
41%
2.41
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT JEF United Chiba / FT JEF United Chiba✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.25
–
Form
JEF United Chiba – last 6
WLLLWL
4 Apr
vs Tokyo Verdy
3–2
W
22 Mar
@ Kashima
1–2
L
18 Mar
vs FC Tokyo
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Yokohama F. Marinos
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ Machida Zelvia
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Mito Hollyhock – last 4
LWLD
22 Mar
@ Kashiwa Reysol
0–3
L
18 Mar
vs Yokohama F. Marinos
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ Urawa
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Machida Zelvia
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock.
What is the prediction for JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
On our numbers JEF United Chiba have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mito Hollyhock 34%.
How many goals will there be in JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our predicted score is JEF United Chiba 1–1 Mito Hollyhock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Fukuda Denshi Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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