Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQuilmes to win ✗44% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.17
Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez preview and prediction
The match
Quilmes host Tristan Suarez in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes. Quilmes are 13th with 45 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Tristan Suarez sit 1st on 64 points (top of the table). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Quilmes's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Chacarita Juniors 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tristan Suarez's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with San Martin Tucuman 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.1 for Quilmes and 0.8 for Tristan Suarez. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.30 – 50% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Quilmes 1–0 Tristan Suarez. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Quilmes44%fair 2.26 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.65
Tristan Suarez30%fair 3.29 · @3.70
1.89Expected goals
1.07Quilmes xG
0.82Tristan Suarez xG
50%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Quilmes 1.1 – 0.8 Tristan Suarez expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Quilmes to win✗
44%
2.26
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
2.30 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Quilmes / FT Quilmes✗
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.17
–
Form
Quilmes – last 5
DWWDL
5 May
vs Chacarita Juniors
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ San Telmo
3–0
W
15 Mar
vs Patronato
3–0
W
22 Feb
vs Midland
0–0
D
16 Feb
@ Atlanta
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Tristan Suarez – last 5
DDLWW
19 Apr
@ San Martin Tucuman
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Sarmiento Junin
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–0
W
2 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Quilmes and Tristan Suarez.
What is the prediction for Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez?
On our numbers Quilmes have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tristan Suarez 30%.
How many goals will there be in Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez?
Our predicted score is Quilmes 1–0 Tristan Suarez, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez?
Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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