Value bet: San Martin Tucuman to win @ 2.75 – our chance 44% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martin Tucuman to win ✗44% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.38
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.57
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman preview and prediction
The match
Gimnasia Y Tiro host San Martin Tucuman in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Gigante del Norte. Gimnasia Y Tiro are 8th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top half), while San Martin Tucuman sit 10th on 47 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Gimnasia Y Tiro's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Agropecuario 2–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
San Martin Tucuman's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Gimnasia Jujuy 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Martin Tucuman arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.9 for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 1.1 for San Martin Tucuman. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gimnasia Y Tiro 31%, draw 26%, San Martin Tucuman 44%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.50.
Value angle: San Martin Tucuman to win at 2.75 – 44% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Gimnasia Y Tiro 0–1 San Martin Tucuman. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gimnasia Y Tiro31%fair 3.25 · @2.85
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.60
San Martin Tucuman44%fair 2.30 · @2.75
2.00Expected goals
0.88Gimnasia Y Tiro xG
1.12San Martin Tucuman xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Gimnasia Y Tiro 0.9 – 1.1 San Martin Tucuman expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martin Tucuman to win✗
44%
2.30
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.38
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Martin Tucuman / FT San Martin Tucuman✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.57
–
Form
Gimnasia Y Tiro – last 6
LLDDLL
5 May
vs Agropecuario
2–3
L
1 May
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–2
L
20 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs San Martin S.J.
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Central Norte
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Nueva Chicago
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Martin Tucuman – last 6
WWDDDD
13 May
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
2–0
W
3 May
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Madryn
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ San Martin S.J.
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Patronato
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gimnasia Y Tiro and San Martin Tucuman.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
On our numbers Gimnasia Y Tiro have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and San Martin Tucuman 44%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia Y Tiro 0–1 San Martin Tucuman, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Gigante del Norte.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Ferro Carril Oeste1