Value bet: San Martin S.J. to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martin S.J. to win ✓43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗72% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Almagro vs San Martin S.J. preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Almagro take on San Martin S.J. on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Tres de Febrero. Almagro are 15th with 42 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while San Martin S.J. sit 9th on 51 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Almagro's last 4: WDLD Most recently they beat Nueva Chicago 2–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
San Martin S.J.'s last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Atlanta 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Almagro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.8 for Almagro and 1.0 for San Martin S.J.. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Almagro 31%, draw 26%, San Martin S.J. 43%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.45.
Value angle: San Martin S.J. to win at 2.55 – 43% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Almagro 0–1 San Martin S.J.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almagro31%fair 3.23 · @3.10
Draw26%fair 3.78 · @2.55
San Martin S.J.43%fair 2.35 · @2.55
1.86Expected goals
0.82Almagro xG
1.04San Martin S.J. xG
49%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–015%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Almagro 0.8 – 1.0 San Martin S.J. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martin S.J. to win✓
43%
2.35
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.77
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.20
–
Form
Almagro – last 4
WDLD
11 May
@ Nueva Chicago
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Midland
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
San Martin S.J. – last 6
LDDDLL
14 Apr
vs Atlanta
1–2
L
4 Apr
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Racing Cordoba
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs San Martin Tucuman
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–1
L
2 Mar
@ Tristan Suarez
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almagro and San Martin S.J..
What is the prediction for Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
On our numbers Almagro have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and San Martin S.J. 43%.
How many goals will there be in Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
Our predicted score is Almagro 0–1 San Martin S.J., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
Almagro vs San Martin S.J. (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Febrero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportivo Madryn0
Ferro Carril Oeste1