New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
New Mexico United or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chanceNew Mexico United or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.88
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay preview and prediction
The match
Monterey Bay travel to Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park in the USL Championship on Sunday 11 October (02:00 WAT) to face New Mexico United. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Monterey Bay sit 12th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 28 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Phoenix Rising 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Monterey Bay's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Orange County SC 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 August 2026, finished Monterey Bay 2–5 New Mexico United.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for New Mexico United and 0.8 for Monterey Bay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 65%, draw 23%, Monterey Bay 12%.
Safer route: New Mexico United or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was New Mexico United or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: New Mexico United 2–0 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United65%fair 1.53 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @4.00
Monterey Bay12%fair 8.40 · @4.20
2.76Expected goals
2.00New Mexico United xG
0.76Monterey Bay xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 2.0 – 0.8 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is New Mexico United or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Monterey Bay 12%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 2–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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