USL Championship · USA · Wild Horse Pass StadiumPhoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights prediction & analysis
Phoenix Rising to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Phoenix Rising 1.9 – 0.9 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Phoenix Rising are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 19% for Las Vegas Lights.
Phoenix Rising have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. Las Vegas Lights have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.9 for Phoenix Rising, 0.9 for Las Vegas Lights). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Phoenix Rising have won 0, Las Vegas Lights have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Phoenix Rising to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Phoenix Rising to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Half-time result | Phoenix Rising ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Phoenix Rising / FT Phoenix Rising ✓ | 39% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.28 | – |
Form
Phoenix Rising – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ New Mexico United | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Oakland Roots | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs El Paso Locomotive | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs FC Tulsa | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Monterey Bay | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Indy Eleven | 2–1 | W |
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs San Antonio | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Oct | @ Sacramento Republic | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Hartford Athletic | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Orange County SC | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs New Mexico United | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Charleston Battery | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 2026 | Las Vegas Lights v Phoenix Rising | 1–1 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 |
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Hartford Athletic1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our pick is Phoenix Rising to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights?
On our numbers Phoenix Rising have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Las Vegas Lights 19%.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights?
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.