Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceTampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.27
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies preview and prediction
The match
Tampa Bay Rowdies travel to Michael A. Carroll Stadium in the USL Championship on Sunday 11 October (00:00 WAT) to face Indy Eleven. Indy Eleven are 9th with 34 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st on 61 points (top of the table). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Indy Eleven's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Loudoun United 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Miami FC 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Indy Eleven.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Indy Eleven and 1.7 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Indy Eleven 17%, draw 22%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 61%.
Safer route: Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Indy Eleven 0–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Indy Eleven17%fair 5.74 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.30
Tampa Bay Rowdies61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
2.54Expected goals
0.80Indy Eleven xG
1.74Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Indy Eleven 0.8 – 1.7 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers Indy Eleven have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 61%.
How many goals will there be in Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is Indy Eleven 0–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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