Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 2.98 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruzeiro to win ✗40% · @2.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Vasco DA Gama take on Cruzeiro on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 01:20 (WAT) at Estádio São Januário. Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 41 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 60 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Vitoria 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cruzeiro's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Atletico-MG 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Cruzeiro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 March 2026, finished Cruzeiro 3–3 Vasco DA Gama.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.4 for Cruzeiro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 36%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Cruzeiro to win at 2.98 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Cruzeiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama36%fair 2.79 · @2.34
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Cruzeiro40%fair 2.50 · @2.98
2.65Expected goals
1.28Vasco DA Gama xG
1.37Cruzeiro xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.3 – 1.4 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cruzeiro 40%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 01:20 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
