Serie A · Brazil · Neo Química ArenaCorinthians vs Santos prediction & analysis
Corinthians or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Corinthians to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.8 – 0.7 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Corinthians are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 14% for Santos.
Corinthians have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Santos have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.8 for Corinthians, 0.7 for Santos). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Corinthians have won 0, Santos have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Corinthians or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Corinthians to win at 1.83 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Corinthians to win ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | Corinthians or draw ✗ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Corinthians ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians ✗ | 40% | 2.48 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.64 | – |
Form
Corinthians – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Rosario Central | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Cruzeiro | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Rosario Central | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Aug | @ RB Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | vs Internacional | 2–1 | W |
Santos – last 6
| 27 Aug | @ Palmeiras | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs Mirassol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Aug | @ Macara | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | @ Vasco DA Gama | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Aug | vs Macara | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Atletico Paranaense | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Santos v Corinthians | 1–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Santos?
Our pick is Corinthians or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Corinthians vs Santos?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Santos 14%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Santos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Corinthians vs Santos?
Corinthians vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.