Serie A · Brazil · Arena Fonte NovaBahia vs Internacional prediction & analysis
Bahia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bahia 1.9 – 0.7 Internacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bahia are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 13% for Internacional.
Bahia have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (1W 5D 0L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Internacional have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.9 for Bahia, 0.7 for Internacional). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Bahia have won 1, Internacional have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Bahia or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Bahia to win at 1.90 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bahia to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Bahia or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.16 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.77 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | Bahia ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bahia / FT Bahia ✓ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.87 | – |
Form
Bahia – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ Vitoria | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Chapecoense-sc | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs Vasco DA Gama | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Jul | @ Fluminense | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Jul | vs Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Jul | @ Atletico-MG | 1–1 | D |
Internacional – last 6
| 28 Aug | vs Gremio | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Atletico-MG | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Aug | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | @ Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Aug | @ Corinthians | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs Corinthians | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Internacional v Bahia | 0–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Internacional?
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bahia vs Internacional?
On our numbers Bahia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Internacional 13%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Internacional?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Bahia vs Internacional?
Bahia vs Internacional (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.