Serie A · Brazil · Arena do GrêmioGremio vs Chapecoense-sc prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Gremio 2.0 – 0.7 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Gremio are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 13% for Chapecoense-sc.
Gremio have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Chapecoense-sc have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (2.0 for Gremio, 0.7 for Chapecoense-sc). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Gremio have won 0, Chapecoense-sc have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.34.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gremio to win ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | 1.52 |
| Double chance | Gremio or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Gremio ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Gremio / FT Gremio ✓ | 44% | 2.30 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.62 | – |
Form
Gremio – last 6
| 28 Aug | @ Internacional | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ RB Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Atletico-MG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Aug | vs Mirassol | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | @ Mirassol | 1–1 | D |
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Sao Paulo | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Bahia | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Aug | @ Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Aug | @ Cruzeiro | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs Cruzeiro | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Jul | @ Santos | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 17 Mar 2026 | Chapecoense-sc v Gremio | 1–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Gremio have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chapecoense-sc 13%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.