Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
2
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 2.62 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✓41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.43
Vitoria vs Bahia preview and prediction
The match
Bahia travel to Estádio Manoel Barradas in the Serie A on Sunday 23 August (20:00 WAT) to face Vitoria. Vitoria are 15th with 38 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vitoria's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Botafogo 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Bahia's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with Chapecoense-sc 3–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 March 2026, finished Bahia 1–1 Vitoria.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Vitoria and 1.3 for Bahia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 60%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vitoria 35%, draw 24%, Bahia 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Bahia to win at 2.62 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Vitoria 1–1 Bahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitoria35%fair 2.85 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.10
Bahia41%fair 2.46 · @2.62
2.52Expected goals
1.20Vitoria xG
1.32Bahia xG
60%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vitoria 1.2 – 1.3 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Vitoria vs Bahia?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bahia 41%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Bahia?
Vitoria vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
