Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.90 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✓63% · @1.90
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.37
Mirassol vs Flamengo preview and prediction
The match
Mirassol host Flamengo in the Serie A on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol are 14th with 40 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Flamengo sit 1st on 76 points (top of the table). A gap of 36 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mirassol's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with LDU de Quito 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Flamengo's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Cruzeiro 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Flamengo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Mirassol and 1.9 for Flamengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Flamengo to win at 1.90 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Flamengo or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mirassol 0–1 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol13%fair 7.94 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.40
Flamengo63%fair 1.58 · @1.90
2.64Expected goals
0.74Mirassol xG
1.89Flamengo xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mirassol 0.7 – 1.9 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
63%
1.58
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.37
–
Form
Mirassol – last 6
DLLDWD
13 Aug
vs LDU de Quito
1–1
D
9 Aug
@ Cruzeiro
1–3
L
5 Aug
@ Gremio
0–1
L
2 Aug
vs Gremio
1–1
D
29 Jul
vs Remo
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
DWDDWW
13 Aug
@ Cruzeiro
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
29 Jul
@ Internacional
1–1
D
26 Jul
vs Sao Paulo
1–1
D
23 Jul
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
18 Jul
vs Olimpia
4–2
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Flamengo.
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mirassol vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Flamengo 63%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Mirassol vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
